I remember when England "scored" two goals against Japan in a pre-World Cup friendly and thinking "that's it - we've used up all of our luck already, before the tournament even begins."
Of course, there is no mathematical logic for that position, in the same way there is no mathematical logic for arguing that because the last coin-toss landed on heads, the next coin-toss is bound to land on tails. In theory, we could have lucked our way to the prize, much in the way that Uruguay almost did.
Eventually, the coin will land on tails though if tossed away for long enough. Just like it did for England before the World Cup really got going. Just like it eventually did for Uruguay. At that juncture, Uruguay had been the tournament villains due to the flexibility in which they interpreted the rules to see off Ghana.
Come the final, and a new collective villain had emerged in the shape of Holland. They were industrious rather than dazzling throughout the World Cup, characterised by the aggressive play by Mark van Bommel. By the final, however, the virus of aggression appeared to have spread through the entire team, with the overall strategy relying on borderline violent tactics and seemingly doing their best to ruin the match.
They would have succeeded in their aim were it not for two factors. One, that Spain managed to fend off the brutal attempts to stop them with their more elegant style of play. Two, that the referee, Howard Webb, chose pragmatism over the letter of the law, in an attempt to make an event of the fixture.
He showed a high tolerance, and should have shown a red card in the first 45 minutes in the face of unacceptable Dutch tactics. It might have ended the match as a contest sooner, but he would had more control over it. My blood pressure will not allow me to elaborate further on the disgraceful and unsporting behaviour of the Dutch after the final whistle. Given the generosity of Webb throughout the match, they had a nerve complaining about his officiating. Hopefully a team with this attitude never makes it to a World Cup final again. Alan Hansen was (half) right when he said that "there is no place in football" for a team like this Dutch one. He was referring to the first 45 minutes. In truth, they were a disgrace throughout the tie.
Thankfully, Spain proved that skill, rather than luck or gamesmanship, is required in abundance to win World Cups. And that is the trouble with England. For all the talk of dependency on Rooney before the tournament, Lady Luck is generally the player we rely on most. And when she has an off day, England generally lose. Spain did not need assistance from a player so fickle.
Luck deserted England the moment Rob Green conspired to throw the ball into his own net in the opening game against the United States. It would be a setback that England would never fully recover from, setting off a sequence of events that resulted in England's eventual elimination at the hands of free-scoring Germany.
Luck was nowhere to be seen when England needed to rescue the group campaign against Algeria. She would even prove to have the final say during the finest hour of the campaign, when England emphatically and comprehensively defeated the mighty Slovenia 1-0, and she did that by handing the USA the late goal they needed to avoid the Germans (who really were quite mighty this World Cup and would have been more worthy finalists than the Dutch).
For all the while we continue to rely on a little good fortune, and bemoaning the bad luck -- untimely red cards, penalty shoot-out defeats and unlucky own goals -- we will continue to fail on the main stage. The Dutch will continue to believe that kicking the opposition is 'the way forward'. The truth is, to win the World Cup, all you need to do is play the way Spain did.
