The X-Factor is supposed to be that popular light entertainment show on ITV, but you would hardly believe it is light entertainment given the high-pressure press coverage. It is better known for its reported controversies, meltdowns, angry exchanges and fuming judges. On top of that, trying to forecast the result is becoming increasingly difficult. This makes for betting hell.
The elimination on Sunday November 7th ought to have been straightforward. Contestant Katie Waissel had been the favourite with the bookies all week to be eliminated, and with good reason. She had been in the bottom two sing-off twice already, and looked a sure bet to be in the drop-zone for a third time. She did remain odds-against with many bookies though with evens being typically on offer. So, more or less a fifty-fifty chance of elimination, but no means a certainty.
No doubt the backers and the layers had already taken into account the influence of the judges at the early stages of The X-Factor live finals, hence the seemingly generous odds on display. While two candidates for elimination are put up by the public, it is the judges that have the eventual say which one goes. What followed that night however could not be predicted, or scripted any more bizarrely.
The bottom two sing-off ended up being between the vocally inept but multi-charactered figure of Katie versus the reasonably talented but apparently characterless figure of Tracey Cohen (or Treyc, or however it is spelt). They were two artists mentored by Cheryl Cole (not Tweedy!). It was not difficult to predict the scenario since, as Louis Walsh would say, 'they have made that bottom two their own' this series.
And even more predictably, it was the more colourful Katie who won the vote 2-1. Fantastic for those who could see it coming a mile off. Betting hell for those who had already backed Katie to be eliminated by using the most logical form of judgement in a music contest - their ears. It was Cheryl's refusal to nominate with the score Katie 1-0 up that raised the most eyebrows. Amidst claims that she betrayed her duty as a judge, the manner of which the drama unfolded suggests a plausible process in the creation of the result which is not entirely fair, but probably well within the rules.
1. As already established, it was highly likely who were going to be the bottom two candidates. The judges would surely discuss how they were likely to vote you would assume, and it is also fair to assume that Cheryl would not want to choose between the two girls.
2. This would be fine if the other three judges decided to make it easy by eliminating Tracey for her. In this respect, Simon Cowell and Louis did vote to keep Katie after the sing-off.
3. The problem however would have been Dannii Minogue. She has been fairly independent this series, and been the most critically honest to the contestants, while Simon has been showing a rather softer side which somehow manages to be more obnoxious than his originally nasty image. So if there was a danger that Dannii was going to put Cheryl on the spot, there needed to be a plan B.
4. That plan was to have Cheryl vote unusually early (earlier in the series Simon was spared having to choose between two of his acts as three judges voted in unison prior to him). Cheryl declares her 'no vote', which opens the way for the other two judges to settle it as intended.
5. The evidence fits. Though Cheryl stated "come back to me and I will take it to deadlock," the show's theme tune kicked in the moment Louis cast his vote. Job done. And though time was running out for the show, Louis (when decided) and then Dermot O'Leary seemed to drone on for an eternity prior to the closing credits. Simon's judgement that Katie was the more interesting character that he thought the public would want to see did seem to confirm that this was the overall feeling about the two contestants.
This is of course only one suggestion, and one which also demonstrates no impropriety, just that between the other three judges they were able to keep their favoured choice in. You cannot help but wonder who received the least votes from the public though.
Current betting and comments - 2010 winner
Prices correct at time of posting on www.betfair.com
MATT CARDLE (2.66)
Has the look of an X-Factor winner, but comes across as bland to me.
REBECCA FERGUSON (3.45)
Has been outstanding so far, but another female winner and another win for mentor Cheryl?
ONE DIRECTION (5.8)
Well loved and has a great chance of winning because Simon Cowell said so. The young redial vote probably helps as well.
CHER LLOYD (14.5)
Most likely of the 'Marmite' acts to win. Less likely unless she drops the rapping.
AIDEN GRIMSHAW (21)
A bit of a disappointment. Audition showed his capabilities, but his performances in the live shows have been inconsistent.
MARY BYRNE (50)
Looked good in the audition, and must be liked by the public. Not the next Susan Boyle though.
WAGNER (55)
Joke act who is lucky it is not a 'vote to eliminate' contest. Ironic voting should see him last a couple more weeks at least.
PAIJE RICHARDSON (95)
Has done well so far with minimum hype and some unfavourable singing slots. While an unlikely winner, should the odds be so long?
KATIE WAISSEL (140)
Doomed when the judges either no longer have the casting vote or get the hint, or Katie herself decides she cannot take anymore.
